Australia’s population is set to reach 25 million, at around 11pm on Tuesday 7th August, twenty four years earlier than expected.
It was previously predicted in the 2002 Intergenerational Report that we’d reach this milestone in 2042, but we’ve managed to out do ourselves and get there 24 years earlier.
How We Know When We Will Hit 25 Million
There’s a number of things that go into predicting our population numbers.
When births, deaths and net overseas migration are taken into account Australia is now adding one extra person every 83 seconds.
Calculations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics are based on Australia’s population as of December 2017 and assumes growth since then based on:
one birth every one minute and 42 seconds
one death every three minutes and 16 seconds
one person arriving to live in Australia every one minute and one second
one Australian resident leaving Australia to live overseas every one minute and 51 seconds
These are measured against each other to determine the overall population growth which is an increase of one person every one minute and 83 seconds.
There will be no official 25 millionth Australian and it could be a new born baby or a newly arrived migrant.
According to the ABS, net overseas migration accounts for 62 percent of Australia’s total growth, with the other 38 percent from natural increase.
Although we can’t know for sure who Australian number 25 million will be, demographic trends suggest it is most likely to be a female student, migrating from China.
This imaginary 25th million resident, based on current data, will be aged about 26, and move to western Sydney on a higher education visa, possibly business or management according to demographer Mark McCrindle.
How Did We Grow So Quickly?
The total Australian population has doubled since 1970 and increased by around six times since Federation in 1901, rising from 3.8 million to nearly 25 million today.
24 million in January 2016
23 million in February 2013
22 million in May 2010
21 million in December 2007
20 million in October 2004
15 million in October 1981
5 million in 1970 (half of 25 million)
10 million in 1959
5 million in 1918
When will we reach 26 million?
Over the last three years, Australia’s population has grown by around 400,000 people per year.
If this trend continued, we expect to reach 26 million in the next two to four years.
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